Nifty movement (IV & Premium decay analysis)

[Nitin Bhatia]

Dear All Members,
I am creating this topic to discuss all IV & Premium decay related analysis during live market so that we can learn and find out nifty direction in market hours.

[Nitin Bhatia]

Awesome bro. Lets discuss.

[Nitin Bhatia]

10:18 11400 put IV 18.36 and on call side 26.26 then think market goes down premium decay are also indicated that if I m wrong plz suggested me

[Nitin Bhatia]

The other way to look is that call IV is high. Therefore, it should cool down and market should go up..You have to consider premium decay and smart money also into your consideration.

[Nitin Bhatia]

It my pleasure that u explain it very well guru ji and one more question to u guru ji now at a time option chain indicate that market may be touch 11100 that time plz rply me guru ji

[Nitin Bhatia]

I already shared in my nifty view.

[Nitin Bhatia]

Today is best for new learning
> IV is high at call side & premium decay is also indicating for negative in market
> As market is already in high red (-80),two things can happen
1) either market will end in at 11350 (more selling in reliance and HDFCBANK or ICICIBANK)
2) or IV at call side will cool down & market will be near 11480 or 11500.

Let’s see what market will teach us today

[Nitin Bhatia]

Wating for the action time in nifty.

[Nitin Bhatia]

CALL IV is continues increasing and oi increasing on both sides.

[Nitin Bhatia]

AS global selling going on, technical analysis is also suggesting big dip in Nifty also.

[Nitin Bhatia]

Amazing Today,

As discussed above Point.1) came out as correct & market went to 11,500 but only Nitin sir might have made correct path.

Using parabolic sar I made two trades but in stop loss hunting no profit no loss

[Nitin Bhatia]

At 1527Hrs. a position was created at strike price 10000 with IV of 176.Can we conclude that somebody booked profit and expecting market to remain rangebound for tomorrow 11500 11550.

Also considering the data overall sir. ..

[Nitin Bhatia]

It can be fresh position also.

[Nitin Bhatia]

Its too difficult to find direction today as IV is not showed on NSE website on expiry day.

[Nitin Bhatia]

I am tracking it from next weekly expiry of 16 May 2019.
This week iv not available since start.

[Nitin Bhatia]

Based on all nifty weekly expiry market remained (from 11 to 2 PM) -20 to +20 to eat premium and in last half an hour it goes + or – 30 points.

[Nitin Bhatia]

All,

Option chain for 16th May shows,

》call side for all SP fresh short position created,
》Put side for majority SP fresh Long position created,

As per this market must move in negative, or
We should not consider friday optional chain for weekly analysis???

[Nitin Bhatia]

Better to consider option chain of expiry.

[Nitin Bhatia]

14.05.19

For analysing today’s movement can someone help with the commentary of today’s nifty 3 big moves by taking reference of OI, Change OI, Volumes, Premium Decay, IV and correlation.

1st big move was at 13.00 PM
2nd big move came at 14.40 PM
3rd was at 15.05 PM
Note: Referring 5 min candlestick chart.

Thanks in advance.

[Nitin Bhatia]

It is impossible to explain till you have screen recording of option chain movement.

[Nitin Bhatia]

CAll side ATM(11250) IV is 20 & PUT side IV is 28.

As per correlation market will go up from here.

[Author]

Posts